The war in Ukraine has captured the world’s attention, raising a pressing question: Who is winning? With the conflict entering its third year, it remains complex and fluid.
Russia and Ukraine have experienced gains and setbacks while international dynamics continue to shape the battlefield. In this analysis, we explore the strategic positions of both sides, the impact of international involvement, and potential scenarios for the war’s resolution. We aim to present an objective perspective, avoiding bias and focusing on the facts to answer the burning question: Who is winning the war in Ukraine?
Russia’s Strategic Position: Gains and Challenges
Territorial Gains
In the initial stages of the conflict, Russia faced significant challenges, including unexpected resistance from Ukrainian forces and logistical hurdles. However, as of February 2025, Russia has consolidated its positions, maintaining control over approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory. This includes strategic areas in Eastern and Southern Ukraine, which are crucial for supply lines and military logistics. Russian forces recently reclaimed over 800 square kilometers in the Kursk region from Ukrainian control, representing about 64% of the territory initially lost to Ukraine. These advancements underscore Russia’s strategic focus on securing and expanding its territorial gains.
Military Strategy and Limitations
Russia’s military strategy has evolved. Initially, rapid advances were made with a focus on capturing major urban centers. However, as the conflict progressed, Russia shifted to a more attritional approach, leveraging its superior artillery and airpower to wear down Ukrainian defenses. This shift has allowed Russia to hold strategic positions while minimizing direct confrontations.
Despite these gains, Russia’s progress has been met with significant costs. The Russian military has faced a deceleration in its advance, attributed to increased casualties, recruitment challenges, and logistical issues. For instance, in early 2025, Russian forces required nearly six days to capture an area equivalent to Manhattan, starkly contrasting the rapid advances seen in earlier phases of the conflict. This slowdown suggests that while Russia holds substantial territory, sustaining further offensives may prove challenging.
Political and Economic Impacts
International sanctions have heavily impacted Russia’s economy, affecting military spending and supply chains. Additionally, domestic dissent and political pressures are rising as the war drags on with no decisive victory. These internal dynamics pose challenges to Russia’s long-term strategic objectives in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Counteroffensives
Strategic Resilience and Counterattacks
Ukraine has demonstrated remarkable resilience throughout the conflict. In August 2024, Ukrainian forces launched a significant counteroffensive into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, marking one of the most ambitious operations since the war’s inception. This bold move not only showcased Ukraine’s offensive capabilities but also compelled Russia to divert troops from other occupied territories to address the new threat. These counteroffensives have allowed Ukraine to reclaim some lost territory, maintain morale, and demonstrate its capacity to resist Russian advances.
Western Support and Limitations
A key factor in Ukraine’s resilience has been the substantial support from Western countries. The United States, European Union, and NATO allies have provided military aid, including advanced weaponry, intelligence support, and financial assistance. This support has bolstered Ukraine’s defensive capabilities and enabled strategic counterattacks.
However, Ukraine’s counteroffensives have not been without challenges. The prolonged conflict has strained the nation’s resources, and the shifting geopolitical landscape has introduced new uncertainties.
Recent policy shifts from the United States, including President Donald Trump’s criticism of Ukrainian leadership and calls for expedited peace negotiations, have raised concerns about the future of international support for Ukraine. If Western support diminishes, Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defenses and launch further counteroffensives could be compromised.
Humanitarian and Economic Consequences
The war has inflicted severe humanitarian and economic consequences on Ukraine. Millions of people have been displaced, and critical infrastructure has been destroyed. The economic cost of the conflict is immense, with Ukraine’s GDP contracting significantly. Despite these challenges, the Ukrainian population has shown resilience and solidarity, bolstering national unity and resolve.
International Dynamics and Their Impact
Role of the United States
The international community’s role has been pivotal in shaping the trajectory of the conflict. Under President Trump’s administration, the United States has initiated direct talks with Russia, aiming for a swift ceasefire. This approach has sparked debates among European allies, with concerns that Ukraine’s interests might be sidelined in favor of a rapid resolution. Ukraine has insisted on being an active participant in any peace negotiations, emphasizing that agreements made without its involvement would be unacceptable.
The U.S. policy shift towards a more neutral stance could significantly impact the balance of power in the conflict. A reduction in U.S. military aid would weaken Ukraine’s defensive and offensive capabilities, potentially allowing Russia to consolidate its territorial gains.
European Unity and Political Shifts
European nations have also grappled with internal political shifts that could influence their stance on the conflict. For instance, the rise of far-right parties in Germany, such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD), has sparked discussions about the future of European unity and support for Ukraine. Engaging with these political movements, rather than sidelining them, has been suggested as a means to address underlying issues and maintain a cohesive foreign policy.
The European Union’s continued support for Ukraine hinges on maintaining political cohesion among member states. If internal divisions grow, Europe’s unified front against Russia may weaken, influencing the war’s outcome.
Russia’s Alliances and Geopolitical Calculations
Russia has strategically leveraged its alliances with countries like China, Iran, and North Korea to offset international sanctions and maintain its military operations. This geopolitical alignment has provided Russia with essential military supplies, economic support, and diplomatic backing. Russia’s strategic position will remain bolstered despite international isolation as long as these alliances are in place.
Potential Scenarios for the Conflict’s Resolution
Several scenarios have been proposed regarding the potential resolution of the war in Ukraine:
1. Negotiated Settlement
Facilitated by international actors, this scenario would involve Ukraine making concessions, potentially including territorial adjustments and commitments to neutrality. Such an agreement could lead to a cessation of hostilities but might leave Ukraine in a weakened position.
2. Stalemate and Ceasefire
The conflict could reach a point where neither side can achieve a decisive victory, leading to a ceasefire. This arrangement might involve the establishment of buffer zones monitored by international peacekeepers, with both parties retaining control over their respective territories.
3. Escalation and Renewed Conflict
Without a sustainable peace agreement, there is a risk of renewed hostilities. Factors such as rearmament efforts, shifts in international support, or internal political changes could reignite the conflict, potentially leading to further regional destabilization.
Who Is Winning the War in Ukraine? A Complex Answer
Determining the answer to the question of who is winning the war in Ukraine is challenging, as both Russia and Ukraine have experienced a mix of successes and setbacks. Russia maintains control over significant portions of Ukrainian territory but faces logistical challenges, international condemnation, and domestic pressures. Ukraine has showcased resilience and the capacity to launch counteroffensives but contends with resource limitations and evolving international support.
From a territorial perspective, Russia holds the advantage. However, from a strategic and diplomatic standpoint, Ukraine has successfully garnered international support, isolating Russia on the global stage. Both nations face significant challenges, and the outcome remains uncertain.
The burning question—who is winning the war in Ukraine?—has no simple answer. Russia and Ukraine have claimed victories, but the costs have been high. The international community’s role, internal political dynamics, and military strategies will continue to shape the conflict’s trajectory.
As the war continues to unfold, the pursuit of a peaceful resolution that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty and addresses the security concerns of all parties involved remains a critical objective for the international community. Until then, the question of who is winning remains unanswered, reflecting the complex and evolving nature of the conflict.