Unmasking ‘Hegemonic Bully’ China’s ‘Third Sea Force’: The Covert Maritime Militia’s Grey-Zone War

China’s maritime aggression has come to the fore in the recent Sino-Filipino skirmish on the high seas. Given its brutal and overt nature, the development has made the news over the past few days. However, this development is only the tip of the iceberg, reflecting a broader naval design in the hybrid battlespace. 

Introduction

In the rough waters of the Indian Ocean and the West Philippine Sea, a silent and invisible war is being waged. At the heart of this covert conflict is China’s Maritime Militia, infamously dubbed the ‘Third Sea Force.’ On the face of it, civilian vessels crisscross the ocean under the guise of peaceful research. But beneath that thin veil of deception, their true mission aligns with Beijing’s grandiose geopolitical ambitions. Shrouded in secrecy and suspicion, these vessels are the vanguard of China’s strategy to dominate one of the world’s most critical maritime regions.

A recent bombshell study by the American think-tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has blown the cover of these covert operations, revealing a clandestine network of dual-use research vessels for scientific and military purposes. CSIS’ findings depict a carefully orchestrated campaign by the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to exploit civilian fronts for strategic gains. This analysis delves into the dark waters of China’s unethical grey zone operations and the far-reaching strategic implications of their maritime militia’s clandestine activities.

Bombshell Study: China’s Research Vessels Carry Out Covert Naval Missions

The Washington-based CSIS shed light on the covert activities of Chinese research vessels in the Indian Ocean. This study came to light shortly after Sri Lanka, in January 2024, imposed a one-year moratorium on Chinese research vessels docking in its ports, a move influenced by security concerns raised by India. The CSIS report revealed that while these vessels are officially tasked with scientific research, they also serve military purposes, advancing Beijing’s strategic goals. Since then, more reports in the global media and leading military and maritime security think tanks have only further exposed these covert maritime operations.

The Dual-Use Nature of China’s Research Fleet

China has developed the world’s largest fleet of civilian research vessels, which have been used to gather extensive data on oceanic conditions, including in the Indian Ocean. These ships’ primary mission is to support scientific and commercial objectives, but they also play a crucial role in advancing China’s military strategies. According to CSIS, of the 64 active Chinese research and survey vessels, over 80 percent demonstrated suspicious behaviour or had links suggesting their involvement in Beijing’s geopolitical agenda.

Scientific Endeavors with Military Applications

Chinese research vessels conduct comprehensive oceanographic surveys, measuring water temperature, salinity, and pressure parameters. While these studies contribute to environmental understanding, they also enhance the PLAN’s operational capabilities. For example, accurate data on ocean conditions can improve submarine navigation and stealth, which is critical for military operations.

These vessels also engage in seabed mapping and the search for resources like polymetallic nodules, which contain valuable materials for modern technologies. This dual-use activity supports scientific research and lays the groundwork for future resource claims, strategically benefiting China.

1. Strategic Cable Laying: Chinese research vessels also focus on undersea cables, which transmit most global telecommunications data. These cables are vital for both civilian communications and military operations, providing China with an excellent front for its operations and a significant strategic advantage. Control over these cables allows China to disrupt or monitor global communications, impacting economic and security interests worldwide.

2. Mapping Rich Fishing Grounds: The presence of Chinese vessels in the Indian Ocean and the West Philippine Sea also supports China’s fishing industry, which is crucial for food security. Mapping rich fishing grounds aligns with China’s broader maritime strategy, establishing a dominant presence in key international waters. However, this extensive fishing raises environmental concerns and tensions with regional states.

3. Surveillance and Intelligence Gathering through Underwater Drones: Deploying unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) from these research vessels further complicates the security landscape. UUVs, including autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) and remotely operated vehicles (ROVs), are used for surveillance, reconnaissance, and data collection. These vehicles can operate discreetly, gathering intelligence on naval deployments and submarine activities without risking diplomatic incidents.

Clear Indicators of Military Involvement

Looking at this list of ambiguous activities, one might be tempted to argue, “But in this manner, almost all scientific data could be construed to be collected for military purposes. Any country could be doing this. Why just point fingers at China, then?”

The answer is that there is overwhelming evidence pointing to China’s misdeeds– evidence that does not exist for any other country conducting research in the region.

First, here’s a look at three primary open-source intelligence (OSINT) indicators that suggest the involvement of Chinese research vessels in military operations:

1. Vessel Ownership and Type: Many research vessels are owned and operated by state-affiliated organisations with close ties to the Chinese military. Some vessels were initially built for the PLA before being transferred to civilian use.

2. Military-Affiliated Port Visits: These vessels frequently dock at ports that host major PLA Navy warships and maritime militia vessels. Visits to China’s military outposts in the South China Sea further indicate military affiliations. The visits could be to pass on the gathered data, collect further information on the civilian ship’s mission, and exchange equipment.

3. Suspicious Activities at Sea: Chinese research vessels often engage in “spoofing” (providing falsified identification information) and “going dark” (turning off automatic identification system signals), especially near foreign military facilities.

Then, there are a lot of contextual cues, such as China’s behaviour in the past, lack of transparency, technological and operational evidence, and more:

1. Patterns of Behaviour: China has a documented history of using civilian and commercial activities to mask military objectives. This includes using fishing fleets, merchant ships, and research vessels to gather intelligence and assert territorial claims, particularly in the South China Sea. Several documented incidents have occurred where other countries intercepted or closely monitored Chinese research vessels due to suspicious activities.

2. Legal and Diplomatic Issues: China’s activities often involve violations or manipulations of international law, such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Instances of research vessels operating without proper notifications or in disputed areas add to the suspicions.

3. Transparency and Trust Issues: Other countries conducting research in the Indian Ocean often operate with greater transparency and within established international frameworks. China’s relatively opaque operations and lack of transparency in its intentions contribute to the distrust. India, the United States, Japan, Australia, and Europe follow established protocols, issue proper notifications, and collaborate with other countries in research endeavours. They also have less aggressive postures in disputed maritime regions compared to China.

4. Technological and Operational Evidence: There have been specific instances where Chinese research vessels have been found with advanced equipment capable of gathering military-relevant data, such as underwater profiles and seabed mapping. These activities are critical for submarine operations and underwater navigation during potential conflicts.

Strategic Implications of China’s “Research Vessels”

China’s strategic use of research vessels in the Indian Ocean and SCS is part of a broader “String of Pearls” strategy, aiming to establish a series of maritime footholds. This strategy involves building relationships with smaller regional states through economic and military means, potentially altering the region’s power dynamics and strategic environment. The partnerships often come with significant debt burdens for the host countries, raising concerns about sovereignty and long-term strategic independence.

The Indian Ocean is crucial for China as it seeks to extend its strategic influence beyond its borders. The underwater domain is vital for potential submarine missions, ranging from intelligence gathering to nuclear deterrence patrols.

China’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean and West Philippine Sea, through its Maritime Militia and covert operations, challenges key regional players like India. In response, some regional partners are trying to balance out their collaborations with China. For example, with India’s support, Sri Lanka has imposed a one-year moratorium on Chinese research vessel dockings. Such measures are critical to maintaining regional stability and ensuring that scientific collaborations are equitable and transparent.

As China continues to expand its maritime operations, regional powers and international stakeholders must closely monitor these activities and cooperate to mitigate potential threats. By understanding the dual-use nature of China’s research vessels, the international community can better address the security challenges of Beijing’s strategic ambitions in the Indian Ocean and beyond.

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