This article examines the ongoing geopolitical contest over the Central Asian landmass, encompassing the Caspian region and Siberian land, within the framework of a modern “Great Game.” The struggle for influence between major global powers—primarily the United States, China, Russia, the European Union, and India—is analyzed through economic, military, and strategic lenses. The paper incorporates insights from Kishore Mahbubani’s recent article, “After Munich, It’s Time for Europe to Do the Unthinkable” (Mahbubani, 2025), and considers the broader implications of geopolitical realignments. Additionally, this article forecasts a drastic transformation by the 22nd century, with the potential establishment of a unified, borderless “one world,” precipitated by climate change, global conflicts, resource depletion, and socio-political upheavals.
Introduction
The geopolitical struggle for the Central Asian landmass has historically been a focal point of global power politics, from the British-Russian rivalry in the 19th century to the contemporary contest between the United States, China, Russia, the European Union, and India. This “Great Game” in the 21st century is driven by access to energy resources, trade routes, military positioning, and ideological expansion. The geopolitical analysis by Mahbubani (2025) provides a crucial perspective on Europe’s declining strategic influence and its need for geopolitical realignment, particularly in the context of NATO and U.S.-Russia-China relations.
The Central Asian Landmass: A Geopolitical Prize
The Central Asian landmass, which includes Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and parts of Russia and China, is one of the world’s most geopolitically significant regions due to its vast energy resources and strategic location (Cooley, 2012). The Caspian region holds immense hydrocarbon reserves, while Siberia offers untapped natural resources critical for future technological advancements. The significance of this region has led to a complex power struggle between the United States, Russia, China, the European Union, and India.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has significantly altered the geopolitical dynamics of Central Asia. The BRI has increased China’s economic influence by developing infrastructure, trade corridors, and energy partnerships (Rolland, 2017). However, this expansion has sparked concerns among other major powers, particularly the United States and Russia, which view China’s growing presence as a challenge to their strategic interests.
Russia’s Strategic Calculations
Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, has sought to reassert its influence in Central Asia through economic, military, and political means. The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) serve as tools for Moscow to maintain its grip on the region (Stronski & Ng, 2018). Russia’s approach has been further complicated by its strained relations with the West, as highlighted in Mahbubani’s (2025) argument regarding Europe’s miscalculations in handling Russia.
Europe’s Role in Central Asia
The European Union (EU) has historically played a secondary role in Central Asia compared to Russia and China. However, in recent years, the EU has increased its strategic engagement in the region through economic and diplomatic initiatives. The EU’s Strategy on Central Asia focuses on sustainable development, security cooperation, and economic partnerships (European Commission, 2019). While the EU lacks the military presence of Russia and the economic leverage of China, it promotes governance reforms, human rights, and infrastructure development through initiatives such as the Global Gateway project (Borrell, 2021).
Despite these efforts, the EU’s influence in Central Asia remains limited by internal divisions and its dependence on external energy supplies, particularly from Russia. The recent geopolitical shifts, including the war in Ukraine and rising tensions with Moscow, have forced the EU to reconsider its engagement strategy in Central Asia (Laruelle, 2020). Greater coordination with regional partners and a more assertive stance on energy diversification could enhance the EU’s position in the Great Game.
India’s Role as a Rising Power in Central Asia
India has emerged as an important player in the geopolitical contest for Central Asia. Historically, India has maintained cultural and economic ties with the region, but its strategic engagement has deepened in recent years. India’s Connect Central Asia Policy, launched in 2012, aims to enhance political, security, economic, and cultural ties with Central Asian states (Pant, 2019).
India has leveraged its membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to strengthen regional security cooperation and counterbalance China’s growing influence (Sahgal, 2021). Additionally, New Delhi has invested in energy security through projects like the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, which aims to diversify its energy sources and reduce reliance on Middle Eastern suppliers (Mishra, 2020).
Despite these efforts, India faces several challenges in expanding its influence in Central Asia. Geographic constraints, limited infrastructure connectivity, and competition from China and Russia have hindered its engagement. Nevertheless, India’s long-term strategy includes strengthening trade relations, developing infrastructure projects, and fostering diplomatic partnerships to solidify its presence in the region (Singh, 2022).
The Role of the United States
The United States has historically sought to counter Russian and Chinese influence in Central Asia through military alliances, economic sanctions, and diplomatic engagement (Brzezinski, 1997). However, recent geopolitical shifts, including the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and strained transatlantic relations, have diminished Washington’s influence in the region. The U.S. faces the challenge of reasserting its strategic interests while managing its global commitments (Mearsheimer, 2018). Still, it is remains to be seen how President Donald Trump’s new foreign policy could be redirected toward a vision of global unity by drawing lessons from the European Union’s integration process.
Forecasting the Future: Towards a Unified World?
By the 22nd century, the global geopolitical landscape may undergo an unprecedented transformation. The convergence of multiple existential threats—climate change, global conflicts, resource depletion, overpopulation, terrorism, crime, and natural disasters—could lead to mass depopulation and the eventual formation of a borderless “one world” (Smith, 2021). This prediction aligns with the historical trend of centralized governance emerging in response to crises (Friedman, 2009).
Conclusion
The 21st-century Great Game in Central Asia is a complex interplay of power politics, economic interests, and strategic calculations. The ongoing struggle between the United States, China, Russia, India, and the European Union will shape the future of global governance. As Mahbubani (2025) suggests, Europe must rethink its geopolitical strategy to avoid becoming irrelevant. The ultimate trajectory of global affairs may lead to a radical transformation by the 22nd century, potentially culminating in a unified world order.
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