By Vishesh Singh
Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination on 31st July 2024 in Tehran marks a significant escalation in Middle Eastern tensions. Blamed on Israel, this act could provoke severe retaliation from Iran and its proxies, potentially igniting a broader regional conflict. Haniyeh was in Iran for the oath-taking ceremony of newly elected Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and was killed during the early hours of Wednesday.
Haniyeh was the leader of the political wing of Hamas since 2017 and was based in Qatar. He had been pivotal in negotiations for ceasefires and hostage exchanges. Therefore, his death complicates the peace process in the region and creates distrust between the two sides. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed wrote, “How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side? Peace needs serious partners.” The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has vowed revenge for Haniyeh’s death, saying this is Iran’s duty.
His death may give a lifeline for Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu, who is also dealing with anti-incumbency. Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk said that Haniyeh’s assassination was a grave escalation and it won’t go unpunished. However, the chances of a massive retaliation from Hamas appear low because their capabilities have significantly reduced due to the war against Israel. Therefore, the response could come from other Iranian proxies in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen, according to AFP. A meeting took place a few days ago between Iranian officials and officials of the proxy groups supported by Iran to discuss the retaliation plans. A source close to Hezbollah said to AFP that two options are being considered by Iran right now. The first scenario is where Iran and all its proxies respond to Israel simultaneously, and the second scenario is a staggered response from each group.
“Iran will lead the initial response with the participation of Iraqi, Yemeni, and Syrian factions, targeting military objectives,” an official with the coalition of pro-Iranian militias known as the Islamic Resistance of Iraq told AFP. Hezbollah will launch a second round of attacks after this.
According to the source, Hezbollah may also go after civilians in retaliation for the deaths of two children and three women during the strike that murdered Fuad Shukr in Beirut.
Iranian-backed proxy militias in the region may launch attacks against US soldiers in Iraq and Syria as part of the retaliation, according to CNN, which cited US officials. These militias attacked US forces in the Middle East regularly for months. However, they decreased significantly when the US retaliated against a drone strike in Jordan in January that claimed the lives of three US military men. According to officials, Iran might give these terrorists the order to start shooting at US forces again.
Following Haniyeh’s burial in Qatar on Friday, Israeli media source Ynet reported that Israelis are bracing for assaults as early as Saturday. They are bracing for a “broad attack” by Tehran and its proxies and are on high alert.
Impact of the Assassination
The assassination of Haniyeh is a massive embarrassment for Iran as well because this showcases Israel’s ability to penetrate Iran’s security systems to achieve its objectives. This assassination is also an enormous test for the newly elected reformist president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian. He has advocated for closer relations with the West; however, this assassination will lead to the rollback of his plans due to immense pressure on the regime to retaliate in the most robust manner possible against Israel.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, the foreign minister and prime minister of Qatar, stated that killing Haniyeh would seriously hinder efforts to go forward with a ceasefire and hostage release agreement nearly ten months into the Israeli conflict in Gaza.
All of this is deliberate, and it’s clear that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is out to destroy any possibility of peace prevailing in Gaza. An Arab official told the Financial Times that Haniyeh was “one of the ones pushing for a deal and compromise, and because of his stature, he was able to speak to the guys in Gaza in a more convincing way than other guys.”
According to Dr. Hamidreza Azizi, who is a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, the assassination of Haniyeh “complicates everything” in the Middle East, significantly lowering the likelihood of fruitful diplomatic relations.
“Haniyeh oversaw the political office in charge of the negotiations and is meant to act as a bridge between the military branch of the organization and the outside world. Given the overall situation in the region and the various actors involved, it is tough to imagine that Hamas would agree to any ceasefire, at least in the short term,” said Dr. Azizi.
How Iran will respond remains to be seen, leading to further regional developments.
Featured image: Ayatollah Khamenei leads prayer for Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran
Author Bio
Vishesh Singh, an adept content editor and writer, delves into the intricate world of International Relations. Armed with a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science, he now charts his course toward deeper understanding through a Master’s program in Geopolitics and International Relations at Manipal University. Vishesh’s passion lies in shaping narratives that bridge global perspectives, and his editorial finesse ensures factual accuracy and clarity. As the founding President of The Political Science Association at KC College, he orchestrated thought-provoking events, honing his communication and leadership skills. Vishesh’s journey is marked by curiosity, dedication, and an unwavering commitment to unraveling the complexities of our interconnected world.
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